How Much Should NFL Teams Bid for Brendan Sorsby in the Supplemental Draft?

After a drawn-out legal battle between Texas Tech quarterback Brendan Sorsby and the NCAA — the NCAA denied Texas Tech’s appeal to reinstate the quarterback, who placed over $90,000 of bets in four years at Indiana and Cincinnati, and courts instituted a temporary injunction allowing him to play the season before the Big 12 independently filed suit to prevent him from playing conference games — Sorsby decided to sidestep all of that and declare for the NFL’s Supplemental Draft. He should be the first player selected in the Supplemental Draft since 2019.

I took a deep dive into his tape to determine where quarterback-needy teams should value him.

Let’s figure out what he does and how teams should approach the question of spending a 2027 pick on him.

_{Wide Left is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.}

The Supplemental Draft order is determined by a lottery system, with teams split into three groups based on their record from the previous year (in parentheses: QB-needy teams):

1. Teams with ≤6 wins (ARI/NYJ/CLE)
2. Non-playoff teams with >6 wins (MIA/MIN/ATL)
3. Playoff teams (PIT)

The order within each tier is randomly generated by a weighted lottery, which gives better odds to those with worse records.

Teams place blind bids, tied to a specific round, on players they want to draft. Players are awarded to the highest bidder, and those teams forfeit their corresponding draft pick the following year.

ARI: 1/2/3/4/5/6/7
NYJ: 1/1/2/2/4/5/5/6/6/6/7/7
CLE: 1/1/2/3/4/5/5/5/6/7

MIA: 1/2/3/3/3/4/5/7
MIN: 1/2/3/3/5/6/7/7
ATL: 2/3/4/6/7

PIT: 1/2/3/3/3/4/4/5/6/6/7/7

I see seven teams with pressing needs at quarterback, who could be in play to draft Sorsby. A third-round pick probably won’t be enough, but if it is, I expect Tier 1 (ARI/CLE) to be his floor. The Jets don’t have a third-round pick in 2027, so they would need to bid a second-round pick at the minimum. 

I view a second-round bid as appropriate value for most teams, although Pittsburgh could justify spending a first to jump ahead of the other tiers. It would be unwise for Atlanta to make a second-round bid, considering they don’t have a first-round pick in 2027, but they’d probably lose out to a higher-tiered team regardless.

I gave Sorsby a mid-2nd round grade (6.13), which would place him as a distant QB3 in the 2027 class and a close QB3 in the 2026 class. Though he could have established himself as a first-rounder with another year in college, his physical tools and feel for the position are worth a top-50 pick in a vacuum. NFL teams will not be grading Sorsby in a vacuum, however, and his off-field issues will likely cause him to slide down or off of some boards. 

The league has shown to be uncompromising in its gambling policy enforcement, giving year-long suspensions to Calvin Ridley, Isaiah Rodgers, Quintez Cephus, C.J. Moore, and Shaka Toney for betting on their teams, and a six-game (later reduced to four) suspension to Jameson Williams for placing college football bets from the team hotel. Gambling, particularly on one’s own team, seems to be one of the NFL’s few ethical red lines, but we haven’t seen it tested at the team level by a draft prospect of this caliber. 

It’s unclear where, if at all, individual teams draw that line for prospects who will be immediately eligible, but were banned or suspended for gambling in college. The closest parallel is Hunter Dekkers, who received a lifetime NCAA ban for betting on Iowa State games, went undrafted in 2025, and now plays for the Houston Gamblers. But Dekkers and Sorsby aren’t in the same zip codes as prospects, so we shouldn’t expect them to be judged by the same standard.

I think most of the league would have had Sorsby graded as a late-first to mid-third round pick in last year’s class. The scale of his gambling addiction, which he described as “a compulsion which made it virtually impossible to resist the constant notifications I received from betting apps” and something he “lost complete control of”, is a major red flag that will probably limit how high GMs are willing to bid and might scare some teams off altogether. 

He’ll enter the NFL with a clean slate, but I’d be hesitant to invest an early pick in someone with such a high likelihood of recidivism. 

I would also be less willing to part ways with a 2027 pick than I would be for most classes.

While I expect many front offices to share my apprehension, league-wide quarterback desperation will drive up his value and could offset those concerns entirely.

Sorsby’s arm talent is his primary selling point as a quarterback prospect. He has a quick, flexible release, with the ideal blend of touch and velocity. He makes trick shots look easy and shows very little drop-off in accuracy when taking a hit or throwing off-platform.

He can accelerate his delivery in the face of pressure, or adjust his arm slot or release point to navigate crowded windows. When an unblocked defender obstructs the passing lane, Sorsby switches to a sidearm release and finds a clean angle.