The Bills-Vikings game was the second of four midseason tests the Vikings took on in order to prove they belonged among the league’s best teams.
In a mediocre 23-6 drubbing on national television, they failed that test.
So, let’s visualize what went wrong.
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Win Probability
Full-size chart here.
Throughout the first half, this non-spread-adjusted win probability model favored the Vikings.
As the home team, the Vikings had a favorable win probability to start, but an excellent return from Greg Dortch set up the Bills in excellent field position. But a sack and a false start set them back, and the Vikings immediately had the field position to theoretically control the game.
Though they never crossed the 75 percent threshold, Byron Murphy Jr.'s first-quarter interception set the Vikings up to put serious stress on the Bills — immediately squandered by a backward pass live-ball error that gave the Bills the ball and, eventually, the lead.
They remained close until the first Carson Wentz interception in the third quarter. Then it snowballed.
This wasn’t a game defined by big swings — more a slow crushing — but, there were some key moments.
Full-size chart here.
Ultimately, it came down to play-by-play edges — marginal gains by the Bills and enormous losses by the Vikings — to eliminate any hope for the Minnesota faithful.
Full-size chart here.
The Vikings Defense
Let’s start with the good news. The defense remains monstrous.
Full-size chart here.
The chart above details how the Vikings defense performed in EPA per play compared against how teams performed in all their other non-Vikings games that year. Knocking teams back by 0.15 to 0.25 expected points per play is massive; that’s about 12 points per game off the board.
This was built off of a demonic pressure approach. Once again, the Vikings blitzed at an obscene rate (79.8 percent) and generated extreme pressure (50.0 percent).
Josh Allen has historically done extremely well against pressure. This year is no different; he entered Week 9 ranking second in EPA per play when blitzed, just behind Caleb Williams and ahead of Patrick Mahomes. They are the only three quarterbacks this year to have positive EPA/play when pressured.
Not only that, he ranks fifth against the blitz, behind Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Jayden Daniels and C.J. Stroud.
Is this a problem for a blitz-centric, pressure-dependent defense like Minnesota?
Full-size chart here.
No.
And who generated this pressure? Andrew Van Ginkel and Jalen Redmond, who were outstanding in putting the screws to the Bills offense.
Full-size chart here.
OK, so the Vikings defense put pressure on Allen and held a team averaging 33.3 points per game to 23 points. Are they still among the NFL’s best?
Good news!
The Vikings, now having smothered multiple above-average offenses, are far and away the best defense in the league.
Full-size chart here.
Interestingly, they’re first in points per drive and fifth in EPA per play over the last decade.
Full-size chart here.
And, since 1999 — as far back as most play-by-play repositories go — they’re still first in opponent-adjusted points per drive.
Full-size chart here.
And, wait … the best opponent-adjusted points per drive defense since 1977?
Full-size chart here.
Christ.
The Vikings Offense
You knew we had to get here. Sorry.
The difference between offensive and defensive performance has been the story of the season, but it was particularly stark this week.
Full-size chart here.
So, how bad was Carson Wentz? Well, his performance was one of the worst in Vikings history. When looking at quarterbacks with at least 20 dropbacks going back to 1977 and adjusting for opponent, it’s the second-worst QB performance we’ve ever seen by EPA per dropback.
Full-size chart here.
It’s been 42 years since we’ve seen a performance this bad.
We have enough information (like throw distance) to gauge the “expected” completion rate going back to 2006. As you might have guessed, it’s the worst. By a hefty margin.
Full-size chart here.
It’s a far cry from what we’ve seen thus far this year, and what we’ve seen has been horrid.
Full-size chart here.
Yea.
Full-size chart here.
There’s not much else to say.
